FiveThirtyEight
PUBLISHED JUN. 28, 2018 AT 5:43 PM

50 Years Of World Cup Doppelgangers
FiveThirtyEight’s MESSI* evaluation compares each participant in each World Cup from 1966 to 2018 by producing statistical fingerprints of 5,882 World Cup performances.
Which performances are most much like
David Silva (Spain 2018)
?

David Silva
TEAM: SPAIN 2018
PLAY STYLE: CREATIVE ATTACKER
Assault
Passing & dribbling
Different
Protection
Tackles
Progressive
passes
Touches
in field
Crosses
Passes
Take-ons
Progressive
dribbles
Interceptions
Blocks
Clearances
Non-shot
exp. objectives
Headers
Fouls dedicated
Fouls drawn
Objectives
Anticipated
objectives
Most related World Cup performances
1. Jan Ceulemans
BELGIUM 1982
2. Michel
SPAIN 1986
three. Marco van Basten
NETHERLANDS 1990
four. Finidi George
NIGERIA 1998
5. Hugo Sanchez
MEXICO 1978
6. Dirk Kuyt
NETHERLANDS 2010
7. Zbigniew Boniek
POLAND 1986
eight. Kevin De Bruyne
BELGIUM 2018
9. Braulio Luna
MEXICO 2002
*FiveThirtyEight’s Modeled Occasion Soccer Similarity Index (MESSI) is a system that evaluates and compares participant performances throughout 16 metrics. Every metric is measured on a per-match foundation, and for every metric we calculate a z-score — the variety of commonplace deviations above or beneath common for that World Cup. The similarity between a pair of performances relies on the typical between every of their 16 z-scores — in different phrases, comparisons match gamers who’re good at related elements of the sport, however the mannequin ignores particulars like a participant’s age or place. Gamers will need to have performed not less than 30 minutes in a given World Cup to be included. Play types are generated via k-means clustering.

Solely profitable crosses, tackles, passes, take-ons and headers are counted, and tackles, interceptions and blocks are adjusted for the time of possession the participant’s crew had throughout every match. Progressive passes and dribbles advance the ball not less than 10 yards towards the opponent’s purpose or into their field. Anticipated objectives is the variety of objectives that our mannequin thinks a median participant would rating based mostly on the standard and amount of pictures taken, and non-shot anticipated objectives is an estimate of the variety of objectives a median participant’s non-shooting actions — passes, take-ons, interceptions, tackles and headers — would generate for his crew.

All metrics right here had been calculated by FiveThirtyEight utilizing knowledge from the sports activities analytics firm Opta and should differ from related metrics at different websites. Numbers will replace after every match via the top of the 2018 World Cup.

Supply: Opta

Statistical mannequin by Jay Boice. Design and growth by Jay Boice and Rachael Dottle. Further contributions by Gus Wezerek.

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