Say goodbye to another defending World Cup champion: Germany, the group that won it all four years ago, is formally out of the 2018 event. Regardless of finally solely needing a win over South Korea — the fourth-worst group within the area, based on our pre-tournament soccer power index ratings — to advance to the knockout spherical, the Germans were upended 2-0 on Wednesday in what was simply the most important upset of the World Cup to date. (Going into the match, our mannequin solely gave South Korea a 5 % likelihood of successful.)

Greatest upsets of the 2018 World Cup

For match winners, based on pregame Soccer Energy Index odds

UnderdogFavouriteWinner’s Pregame Possibilities
DateGroupRatingGroupRatingWinDrawLose
Jun. 27South Korea2Germanyzero5%14%81%
Jun. 25Saudi Arabia2Egypt1232849
Jun. 22Nigeria2Icelandzero343036

Supply: ESPN Stats & Information

Maybe extra shocking than the truth that one other defending champ fell was simply how Germany managed to let its probability slip away. It peppered South Korean goalkeeper Jo Hyeon-Woo with scoring makes an attempt, out-shooting the Koreans 26-11 and holding possession for 70 % of the match. Based on ESPN’s anticipated targets mannequin, we’d predict group with Germany’s alternatives would web 2.9 targets — as an alternative, it scored zero.

It was the sixth-most anticipated targets that any group has had throughout this World Cup; the 5 groups above Germany averaged three.6 precise targets per recreation. However Germany was unable to interrupt by way of when even one objective probably would have been sufficient to propel it to the subsequent part of the event. (South Korea’s late targets have been basically the product of Germany enjoying an all-out offensive technique, understanding it wanted to win outright due to Sweden’s lead over Mexico within the different group recreation occurring on the similar time.) Based on ESPN’s Stats & Info Group, Germany’s 2.9-goal shortfall was the worst in any World Cup match since 1966:

The World Cup’s most disappointing video games since 1966

Greatest single-match gaps between precise and anticipated targets, 1966-2018

Anticipated Targets
DateGroupOpponentAnticipatedPreciseDiff.
6/27/2018GermanySouth Korea2.9zero-2.9
6/30/2014GermanyAlgeriafour.52-2.5
6/14/1978PolandArgentina2.1zero-2.1
7/1/2014SwitzerlandArgentina2.1zero-2.1
6/18/2006CroatiaJapan2.zerozero-2.zero
6/18/2014SpainChile2.zerozero-2.zero
6/19/1974NetherlandsSweden2.zerozero-2.zero
7/19/1966ItalyNorth Korea1.9zero-1.9
6/25/2014FranceEcuador1.eightzero-1.eight
6/17/2014BrazilMexico1.eightzero-1.eight

Supply: ESPN Stats & Information

The loss had a serious ripple impact on the remainder of the World Cup. With Germany — which we rated because the group almost definitely to make the Spherical of 16 going into the event (oops!) — on the sidelines, Brazil added three.5 proportion factors to its odds of successful the World Cup. That’s essentially the most of any group — Brazil might need confronted the Germans within the subsequent spherical had they superior — however England and Belgium have been the next-biggest gainers (apart from Sweden, which punched its ticket to the knockouts by beating Mexico) due to their very own potential proximity to Germany within the bracket.

Now there’s one fewer powerhouse for the highest groups to cope with — and yet another defending champion to toss onto the pile of latest disappointments.

— Jay Boice contributed analysis.



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